It’s no longer a scene filled with hectic excess and record-breaking sales but cultural austerity and sober thrift. The contemporary art bubble has well and truly burst, according to an influential new art world survey published today.
Confidence in many living contemporary artists has plummeted, judging by a list of the “safest investments” in the sector, compiled using the opinions of 127 art world experts.
Research firm ArtTactic has ranked the most financially robust artists ahead of the year’s spate of major London auctions at Sotheby’s and Christie’s, and newer artists such as Anish Kapoor, Damien Hirst, George Condo, Gilbert and George and Jeff Koons have all nosedived in bankability. The only major living contemporary artist still in the top 10 is German painter Gerhard Richter, whose work Abstraktes Bild (769-1) is set to sell at Sotheby’s on February 12, though he has also fallen six places in the past six months.
Kapoor has toppled from third to 38th position; the beleaguered Hirst is languishing at 89th having fallen nine places. Condo, Gilbert and George and Koons have fallen 11, 26 and five places respectively.
While the overall postwar and contemporary art market — the largest sector of the auction market by sales — is performing well, it is being buoyed up by an increased preference for older, more established “blue chip” artists such as Mark Rothko. Such artists are often historically important and have been well celebrated for decades, the tried and tested originators of high-value art that has performed well in the art market, usually for significant periods of time.
“Around 15 artists represent three-quarters of the total auction spend in the post-war and contemporary market,” says Anders Petterson, a former bond trader who founded ArtTactic in 2001. “Given the economic situation, overall it is looking very positive. But buyers are gravitating towards higher-value, more established artists with a longer track record.”
Nearly 100 per cent of experts surveyed by Petterson think art worth more than $1 million (£620,000) will continue to perform well in the near future. But their faith in cheaper work worth $100,000 to $500,000 (£62,000 to £312,000) has fallen by almost a third since June.
The reason, says Petterson, is that higher-end art, generally comprising household names such as Jackson Pollock and Francis Bacon, is more likely to hold its value. The cheaper pieces, often made by living artists who still have to prove their worth, are a riskier investment.
That’s certainly true of Hirst, who has gone from boom to bust in the past six years. After the highs of his record- breaking £111 million auction at Sotheby’s in 2008, since 2009 one in three of his pieces has failed to sell at auction at all. Last month it emerged he has split after 17 years from billionaire art dealer Larry Gagosian, fuelling speculation that trouble was on the horizon.
“The art market’s concentration on a few overpriced trophies may be a symptom that hubris has taken over from sense, across the board,” wrote art critic Blake Gopnik on US website The Daily Beast last month. The Art Newspaper ran a front-page story in November claiming investors were shying away from the carefree work of Hirst, Japanese painter and sculptor Takashi Murakami and contemporary artist Paul McCarthy — all incredibly high-profile, often exhibited artists who have sold for high prices in the past — in favour of older, historical work which can maintain a steady price. Work by Francis Bacon, at fifth place in ArtTactic’s list, is expected to make £15 million at Sotheby’s on February 12 but the artist is classified as “blue-chip” rather than contemporary in its survey.
“There’s more to be said about this new ‘classic contemporary’ which has emerged as the auction favourite since the economic downturn,” says Melanie Gerlis, The Art Newspaper’s art market editor. “There has been a move out of accessible, fun art into this new order, which leaves very little for the middle market. It’s all very top end, where it’s perceived as ‘safe’.”
There is some hope for those without millionaire budgets, however. “Don’t say contemporary art is over just yet,” says Andrew Renton, director of Mayfair’s Marlborough Contemporary gallery. “It’s probably easier to sell a more expensive older work but contemporary art is what is driving all the enthusiasm. It has been fuelled by quick decisions and quick growth. Not all contemporary artists might go very far, but those who do will have extraordinary careers.”
CAPITAL GAIN MOST SECURE POST-WAR AND CONTEMPORARY ARTISTS
1. Mark Rothko (5)
Record auction sale: £54m, Orange, Red Yellow; May 2012
2. Jean-Michel Basquiat (2)
Record auction sale: £16.5m, Untitled; November 2012
3. Yves Klein (13)
Record auction sale: £23.6m, Le Rose du bleu; June 2012
4. Alexander Calder (11)
Record auction sale: £11.7m, Lily of Force; May 2012
5. Francis Bacon (6)
Record auction sale: £43.1m, Triptych, 1976; May 2008
6. Cy Twombly (14)
Record auction sale: £10.9m, Untitled (New York); May 2012
7. Gerhard Richter (1)
Record auction sale: £21.3m, Abstraktes Bild; October 2012
8. Jackson Pollock (12)
Record auction sale: £25.4m, Number 4 (1951); November 2012
9. Roy Lichtenstein (4)
Record auction sale: £28.2m, Sleeping Girl; May 2012
10. Lucian Freud (5)
Record auction sale: £21m, Benefits Supervisor Sleeping; May 2008
11. Louise Bourgeois (9)
Record auction sale: £6.7m, Spider; November 2011
12. Ellsworth Kelly (20)
Record auction sale: £2.2m, Green White; May 2011
13. Andy Warhol (10)
Record auction sale: £45m, Green Car Crash; May 2007
14. Willem de Kooning (16)
Record auction sale: £17 m, Untitled XXV; November 2006
15. Ed Ruscha (19)
Record auction sale: £4.4m, Burning Gas Station, November 2007
16. Keith Haring (44)
Record auction sale: £1.8m, Untitled; May 2007
17. Robert Rauschenberg (27)
Record auction sale: £6.9m, Studio Painting; May 2010
18. Clyfford Still (18)
Record auction sale: £38.6m, 1949-A-No.1; November 2011
19. Christopher Wool (17)
Record auction sale: £4.9m, Untitled; February 2012
20. Maurizio Cattelan (23)
Record auction sale: £5m, Untitled; May 2010
ArtTactic rankings are compiled from a survey of 127 art world experts, June 2012, ranking in brackets